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The Economist: After the disease, the debt - No.17 - 25th Apr 20

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The Economist No.17: After the disease, the debt

 

After the disease, the debt

National leaders like to talk about the struggle against covid-19 as a war. Mostly this is a figure of speech, but in one respect they are right. Public borrowing in the rich world is set to soar to levels last seen amid the rubble and smoke of 1945. As the economy falls into ruins, governments are writing millions of cheques to households and firms in order to help them survive lockdowns. At the same time, with factories, shops and offices shut, tax revenues are collapsing. Long after the covid-19 wards have emptied, countries will be living with the consequences.

 

Autocrats see opportunity in disaster

All the world’s attention is on covid-19. Perhaps it was a coincidence that China chose this moment to tighten its control around disputed reefs in the South China Sea, arrest the most prominent democrats in Hong Kong and tear a hole in Hong Kong’s Basic Law. But perhaps not. Rulers everywhere have realised that now is the perfect time to do outrageous things, safe in the knowledge that the rest of the world will barely notice. Many are taking advantage of the pandemic to grab more power for themselves.

 

The world’s car giants need to move fast and break things

When carmakers sold 95m cars and commercial vehicles in 2017 the 100m mark seemed just around the corner. After a disappointing 2018 and 2019, this year was forecast to be a turning point. And it will be—in the wrong direction. As governments around the world have ordered factories to close and locked-down buyers put off purchases, car sales are expected to plummet by a fifth (see chart 1), to a level last seen in the depths of the global financial crisis of 2007-09. A feared second wave of covid-19 makes prospects for 2021 uncertain. The industry, already facing a precarious and colossally expensive shift to electric cars, will emerge from the pandemic transformed—not necessarily for the better.

 

Most carmakers were fitter going into this crisis than the last recession a decade ago. Back then America’s General Motors (gm) and Chrysler entered bankruptcy and needed bail-outs. This time balance-sheets looked stronger, costs had been tamed and firms had restructured to concentrate on profitable businesses. Nothing, though, prepared them for the coronavirus. First China and then the world went into lockdown. Car firms, parts suppliers, showrooms and repair shops shut.

 

Check out more at: https://www.economist.com/printedition/2020-04-25

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